A second lockdown in Greece to curb a resurgent "second wave" of the Covid-19 pandemic, now heading into a sixth week, is expected to worsen the recession in 2020, the Bank of Greece announced on Monday, in unveiling its Interim Report on Monetary Policy for the year.
Even more, the BoG has revised, downward, its forecast for the eagerly expected rebound in 2021.
The primary BoG forecast for the Greek economy predicts a recession of 10 percent for the current year, with growth of 4.2 percent and 4.8 percent for 2021 and 2022, respectively. Revived domestic and foreign consumption is expected to fuel this scenario.
A "milder" scenario is based on the prospect of a quicker return to normal social and business activity, with GDP pegged to drop by 9 percent for 2020; rebounding by 4.8 and 5 percent in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
Conversely, the most "ominous" scenario includes more pronounced effects of the pandemic on the economy and its immediate recovery. In this case, the recession in 2020 will be 11 percent, with the recovery in 2021 hovering at 3.2 percent; 4.5 percent in 2022.
