By E. Sakellari
[email protected]
According to sources that spoke with "N" this week new lending by Greece's four systemic banks over the 2018-19 is forecast to reach up to 23 billion euros, with the high-end figure amongst the top issues in an agenda of recent talks between banks and the Greek government. The breakdown is 11 billion euros in 2018 and 12 billion in 2019.
The deciding factor in extending more credit to cash-strapped businesses and households will be the course of the Greek economy over the same period.
The more optimistic scenario holds that the largest portion of the highest estimate, 23 billion euros, can be absorbed by the domestic business sector, given that most credit will be extended in the form of business loans. More conservative assessments, however, point to an absorption rate for new lending not exceeding 20 billion euros, assuming that GDP growth hovers at 2.5 percent.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Greece (BoG) on Wednesday released its bank credit and deposits report for September 2018.
The central bank report stated:
"In September 2018, the annual growth rate of total credit extended to the economy stood at -1.8% from -2.3% in the previous month and the monthly net flow was positive at €461 million, compared with a positive net flow of €151 million in the previous month.
The annual growth rate of total deposits stood at 10.7% from 10.4% in the previous month, while the monthly net flow was positive at €442 million, compared with a positive net flow of €2,013 million in August 2018.
I. Credit to the domestic economy
Ι.1 Credit to the general government (1)
In September 2018, the monthly net flow of credit to the general government was negative at €80 million, compared with a positive net flow of €457 million in the previous month. The annual growth rate of credit to the general government stood at -5.6% from -7.1% in the previous month.
Ι.2 Credit to the private sector
In September 2018, the annual growth rate of credit to the private sector stood at -1.3% from -1.5% in the previous month. The monthly net flow of credit to the private sector was positive at €541 million, compared with a negative net flow of €307 million in the previous month.
Ι.2.1 Credit to corporations
In September 2018, the monthly net flow of credit to corporations was positive at €703 million, compared with a negative net flow of €100 million in the previous month; the annual growth rate stood at -0.4% from -1.1% in the previous month. In particular, the annual growth rate of credit to non-financial corporations stood at -0.3% from -0.9% in the previous month and the monthly net flow of credit was positive at €563 million, against a negative net flow of €122 million in the previous month. The annual growth rate of credit to insurance corporations and other financial intermediaries stood at -2.0% from -3.2% in the previous month and the monthly net flow was positive at €140 million, compared with a positive net flow of €21 million in the previous month.
Ι.2.2 Credit to sole proprietors and unincorporated partnerships
In September 2018, the monthly net flow of credit to sole proprietors and unincorporated partnerships was positive at €4 million, compared with a negative net flow of €23 million in the previous month; the annual growth rate stood at -1.5%, unchanged from the previous month.
Ι.2.3 Credit to individuals and private non-profit institutions
In September 2018, the monthly net flow of credit to individuals and private non-profit institutions was negative at €166 million, compared with a negative net flow of €184 million in the previous month; the annual growth rate stood at -2.1% from -2.0% in the previous month.
II. Deposits (2) by the domestic economy with the domestic credit institutions (3)
ΙΙ.1 Deposits placed by the general government
In September 2018, deposits placed by the general government increased by €340 million, compared with an increase of €717 million in the previous month, while the annual growth rate stood at 48.9% from 46.8% in the previous month.
ΙΙ.2 Deposits placed by the private sector
In September 2018, deposits placed by the private sector increased by €102 million, compared with an increase of €1,297 million in the previous month, while the annual growth rate stood at 7.4% from 7.3% in the previous month.
ΙΙ.2.1 Corporate deposits
In September 2018, corporate deposits decreased by €283 million, compared with an increase of €533 million in the previous month and the annual growth rate stood at 10.1% from 10.2% in the previous month. In particular, deposits from non-financial corporations increased by €193 million, against an increase of €462 million in the previous month. Deposits placed by insurance corporations and other financial intermediaries decreased by €476 million, compared with an increase of €71 million in the previous month.
ΙΙ.2.2 Deposits placed by households and private non-profit institutions
In September 2018, deposits placed by households and private non-profit institutions increased by €385 million, compared with an increase of €764 million in the previous month, while the annual growth rate stood at 6.8% from 6.6% in the previous month."
