The IMF on Wednesday released an improved forecast for Greece’s primary budget surplus performances in 2017 and 2018 (as a percentage of GDP), although accompanied by a worsening debt-to-GDP ratio.
The forecasts were included in the Fund’s Fiscal Monitor report.
Specifically, IMF said the still bailout-dependent country is forecast to reach a 3.7-percent primary budget surplus in 2017, a significant improvement from the Fund’s 1.7-percent forecast last autumn.
The forecast comes days before Greece’s independent statistics authority is set to release a first official estimate for the course of the fiscal target for 2017 – a target that Greece must exceed, as per a memorandum-mandated obligation.
In terms of the closely watched debt-to-GDP ratio, the IMF pointed to lower than previously expected growth in the recession battered country, until 2019, as increasing the figure.
The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to top off in 2018 at 191.3 percent of GDP.
Specifically, the IMF forecasts for Greece are:
Α. Primary surplus:
- 2017: 3.7% (up from 1.7% in October 2017)
- 2018: 2.9% (up from 2.2% in October 2017)
- 2019-2022: 3.5% (this forecast is the same as announced last October)
- 2023: 1.5% (the first time a forecast has been made by the IMF for)
Β. Debt (as a percentage of GDP)
- 2017: 181.9% (from 180.2%, the previous forecast from October 2017)
- 2018: 191.3% (up from 184.5%)
- 2019: 181.8% (up from 177.9%)
- 2020: 177% (up from 171.4%)
- 2021: 172.2% (up from 165.4%)
- 2022: 168.7% (up from 161.2%)
- 2023:165.1%
