Greek lender Eurobank weighed into the now raging debate over Greece's memorandum-mandated fiscal targets, noting in a released study this week that a 0.6-percent primary budget surplus for 2016 is “absolutely realistic”.
In terms of next year’s 1.8-percent primary budget surplus forecast, which is provisioned in the draft 2017 submitted this week by the Greek government, Eurobank said the figure was attainable under the condition of a “significant recovery of domestic economic activity over the coming period.”
The bank’s analysts make the same assessment on the even more ambitious target for 2018, which reaches 3.5-percent of GDP in terms of the primary budget surplus that the Greek government must post – as per its signature on the third memorandum with creditors last summer.
The Athens-based systemic bank cites “encouraging” data from the execution of the current budget over the January-September 2016 period; new fiscal measures legislated in the spring of 2016; positive repercussions from the expanded use of electronic transactions since capital controls were imposed in late June 2015; stepped up inspections to root out tax evasion, particularly in high tourism areas; as well as a milder than expected recession over the current period in 2016.
