By Vassilis Kostoulas
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Martin Schulz would attempt to show his toughness if elected as German chancellor, whereas Angela Merkel has already proved her mettle, the latter's biographer told "N" this week in an interview.
Matt Qvortrup, a professor of political science at Coventry University and a fellow of the Royal Society of the Arts, also underlined that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble had already prepared the framework of a dreaded "Grexit" in 2015, something that Chancellor Merkel prevented during a meeting with her powerful FinMin and coalition partner Sigmar Gabriel.
Qvortrup, the author of "Angela Merkel: Europe’s Most Influential Leader" (Duckworth), also stresses that the German chancellor's biggest advantage may lie in her greatest weakness, namely, to take her time in decision-making, and even then, making the decision at the last minute.
The British academic nevertheless recognizes both Merkel's and Schaeuble's strict stance vis-a-vis Greece, while adding: "(Greek Prime Minister Alexis) Tsipras was also too optimistic - perhaps naive - before he got elected. I think Merkel probably helped save the Euro - but in politics you will always upset people."
How popular is Angela Merkel in Germany today and why;
Some Germans talk about 'merkelmüde' - being tired of Merkel. After almost 12 years in power she is not as popular as before. Still, earlier this week she overtook Martin Schulz in the opinion polls - after he had briefly surged ahead. She is still regarded as competent.
To what extent would you say that Angela Merkel owes her popularity to Wolfgang Schäuble and the effectiveness of the German economy?
The Germans like things to work but it is probably more her own economic advisors who are responsible for the economy.
What was the effect of the migration issue on the political appeal of Angela Merkel?
The migration crisis dented Merkel's popularity in the CSU in Bavaria but it increased her popularity among Greens and voters on the centre-left. Also business leaders welcomed the migrants. The migration issue did have unexpected effects. It was tested her! She has said herself that she would not have done it the same way today.
Nonetheless, Merkel's political problem does not seem to be the AfD but the SPD, which -after the announcement of the candidacy of Martin Schulz- has approached the CDU in opinion polls. What is the reason for this development?
Schulz is a breath of fresh air. Many Social Democrats like the way he speaks 'Klartext' - i.e. say things like they are. Also, he is untainted by austerity politics. He appeals to many of the Social Democrats who temporarily lend their support to CDU in 2013.
What is the baseline scenario regarding the upcoming German elections and the government coalition that will emerge? How likely do you consider the end of Merkel’s political era to be?
IF Merkel's CDU/CSU win more votes than SPD then she will be Chancellor. There is an outside chance that SPD, Green and Linke will have a majority but I don't think a coalition with former Communists is what the Germans want. Merkel would like to form a coalition with the Liberals (FDP) who lost representation last time. I think that is about as realistic as a new Grand Coalition.
Ιn your opinion, which electoral result would be more favorable for the Greek affairs?
Schulz will try to show that he can be tough. Many accuse his of being 'too European'. Merkel has already proved herself tough. So, it will probably be better if Merkel continues.
In Greece, some analysts express the view that Wolfgang Schäuble has a different agenda than Angela Merkel on the Greek question. Some of them even believe that the chancellor was the one who put a brake on the desire of the German Finance Minister for the Grexit. Do you feel the same way?
The German Ministry of Finance had already drawn up a plan - written in English - outlining Grexit. Merkel then held a meeting with Schäuble and Gabriel and stopped the Grexit. Schäuble was not pleased about this but Merkel forced her will through.
How would you describe Angela Merkel? What are her advantages and what are her drawbacks?
Her advantage is her calm and her patience. She is rare momong politicians for not being impulsive. The Germans even have a word for her careful deliberation. To 'Merkel' -Zu merkeln' means to take ones time and only make a decision at the last moment. This is a strength but it can also be a weakness.
How do you evaluate the presence of Angela Merkel during her recent visit to Turkey?
Merkel is a pragmatist. Her starting point is the world as it is. She needs Erdogan but doesn't like or trust him. The same as with Putin. Her game is to play for time and try to get Erdogan to follow a policy that is good for Germany, and secondarily good for Europe. She is still struggling on this point, and the recent meeting showed this.
Do you agree with the view that Europe is currently suffering from a lack of true leaders? Do you think Angela Merkel is capable of managing the current crisis that has struck Europe?
Well, Merkel has been the only leader who has managed to keep Europe together in the past ten years. It has been an exceptionally testing time for the EU with the financial crisis, then with Ukraine and now with Trump. Merkel took a lead in negotiating deals on the economy, she arguably stopped Putin in his tracks and she seems to be the only politician in Europe who speaks up against Trump. In that sense she is the only outstanding leader in Europe today. Greece has reason to feel hard done by. Merkel and Schäuble were tough - but in some ways they had no choice after earlier deals had collapsed. Tsipras was also too optimistic - perhaps naive - before he got elected. I think Merkel probably helped save the Euro - but in politics you will always upset people.
